Loading...
Market
What will be the next significant diplomatic action between the Philippines and China regarding Second Thomas Shoal by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New agreement reached • 25%
Philippines files protest • 25%
China imposes sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the Chinese or Philippine government, or credible news sources
Story
Philippines and China Reach Provisional Agreement on Second Thomas Shoal Resupply Missions
Jul 22, 2024, 03:11 AM
The Philippines and China have reached a provisional arrangement regarding resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea as of July 22. This agreement allows the Philippines to continue resupplying the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded military vessel, with food, water, and other basic necessities. The deal does not require pre-notification to China, a significant departure from previous conditions set by Beijing. Both nations have emphasized that this arrangement will not prejudice their respective national positions and will help manage tensions in the region. Despite the agreement, the Philippines has stated it will continue to assert its rights and jurisdiction in its maritime zones. NSA Jake Sullivan has reiterated U.S. support for the Philippines in this matter.
View original story
Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
UN intervention • 25%
ASEAN statement • 25%
U.S. military support • 25%
Other • 25%
Compensation paid • 25%
Joint patrol agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Naval encounter • 25%
Airspace violation • 25%
Fishing rights dispute • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase naval presence • 25%
Engage in diplomatic talks • 25%
Issue economic sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
China gains control • 25%
Philippines gains control • 25%
Joint control • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Formal protest to China • 25%
Military action or deployment • 25%
Appeal to international bodies • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%