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What will be the outcome of the next major diplomatic negotiation involving Ukraine and Russia by the end of 2025?
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Russia•Ukraine•United Arab Emirates•Belarus•Mariupol•Azovstal steelworks•Kharkiv•Donetsk•Zaporizhzhia•Kherson•Ukrainian•Russian•Volodymyr Zelensky
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Prisoner exchange agreement • 25%
Territorial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Official announcements from the Ukrainian and Russian governments or international bodies
Story
Russia and Ukraine Exchange 25 POWs Each, Including Azovstal Defenders, in UAE-Mediated Swap
Jan 15, 2025, 01:24 PM
Russia and Ukraine have conducted the first prisoner exchange of 2025, each side releasing 25 prisoners of war, according to statements from both countries' defense ministries. The exchange, mediated by the United Arab Emirates, took place on the territory of Belarus. Among those returning to Ukraine are military personnel and civilians, including defenders from Mariupol and the Azovstal steelworks, as well as individuals from the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Many of the Ukrainian returnees are reported to have serious injuries and illnesses, including amputations, gunshot wounds, tuberculosis, cancer, and gangrene. The Russian soldiers are currently in Belarus receiving medical care before being transported to Russia for further treatment and rehabilitation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed commitment to bringing all Ukrainians home, stating that Ukraine will not stop until all its people are returned.
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Similar markets
Peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Territorial Concessions • 25%
Other • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine becomes a Russian ally • 25%
Ukraine remains sovereign • 25%
Ukraine splits into regions • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
No significant change in the situation • 25%
Partial withdrawal with territorial concessions • 25%
Complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire without agreement • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%