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What will be the outcome of Ukraine-Russia negotiations in 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Official announcements from Ukrainian and Russian governments or major international news outlets
Story
Macron Urges Ukraine for 'Realistic' Territorial Talks in Fourth Year of Conflict
Jan 6, 2025, 01:00 PM
French President Emmanuel Macron has urged Ukraine to engage in 'realistic' discussions on territorial issues as the conflict with Russia enters its fourth year. Speaking at the Elysee Palace to French ambassadors, Macron emphasized that only Ukrainians can conduct these negotiations. He warned that there will be no 'quick and easy solution' to the conflict, rejecting the notion of a swift settlement despite recent comments from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Macron stressed the importance of U.S. assistance in pressuring Russia to return to negotiations and highlighted Europe's responsibility to provide Ukraine with security guarantees. He also cautioned that Western credibility would be undermined by any compromise due to 'fatigue' from the prolonged conflict.
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No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire without agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Territorial Concessions • 25%
Partial agreement, no territorial changes • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation in conflict • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Bilateral negotiations only • 25%
Multilateral talks including NATO • 25%
No negotiations • 25%