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What will be the outcome of U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the U.S. State Department or Russian Foreign Ministry
Story
Jake Sullivan: White House Rejects Idea of Returning Nuclear Weapons to Ukraine
Dec 1, 2024, 02:43 PM
The White House has explicitly stated that the idea of returning nuclear weapons to Ukraine is not under consideration. Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, emphasized that the U.S. is focused on providing conventional weapons to Kyiv amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. This statement was made in response to queries about the possibility of nuclear armament for Ukraine, clarifying the U.S. stance on the matter.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
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Successful peace agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement with conditions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full peace agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement, no territorial changes • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Bilateral negotiations only • 25%
Multilateral talks including NATO • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
Formal Peace Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
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Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire with territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Ceasefire without territorial concessions • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace Agreement • 33%
Ceasefire • 33%
No Agreement • 33%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%