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What will be the outcome of the next high-level diplomatic meeting between China and the US regarding Taiwan Strait tensions by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
No significant progress • 25%
Agreement to de-escalate • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from the respective governments or reputable news sources
Story
China Says It Tailed U.S. Spy Plane Through Taiwan Strait on Tuesday
Sep 17, 2024, 08:38 PM
China has announced that its military forces tailed a U.S. spy plane through the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Tuesday. According to Li Xi, a senior colonel, Chinese warplanes were organized to monitor the U.S. aircraft's flight. This incident highlights the ongoing tensions between China and the United States in the region.
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Similar markets
Successful dialogue initiated • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
Increased military presence by China • 25%
Commitment to diplomatic talks • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Improved relations • 33%
Status quo • 33%
Deteriorated relations • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severe diplomatic fallout • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No talks held • 25%
De-escalation and dialogue initiated • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Formal intervention by a third party • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Yes, with significant outcomes • 25%
Yes, but no significant outcomes • 25%
No meeting • 25%
Meeting postponed • 25%