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Market
Outcome of China's Military Exercises Near Taiwan by Mar 31, 2025?
2
Taiwan•Chinese•China•Japan•South China Sea•Taiwanese•PLA•PLAN•Air Defense Identification Zone•United States•Beijing
Resolution / Starting Odds
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Increased military engagement • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Official statements from Taiwan, China, and international news agencies
Story
Taiwan on High Alert as China Deploys Nearly 90 Ships, 47 Aircraft Near Island
Dec 9, 2024, 02:30 PM
Taiwan has escalated its military alert status in response to a significant deployment of Chinese naval and coast guard vessels near the island. According to Taiwan's defense ministry, China has sent nearly 90 ships into regional waters, marking the largest naval operation in nearly three decades. This deployment spans from Japan's southern islands to the South China Sea, surpassing the scale of previous Chinese military exercises. The Taiwanese military detected 47 People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft, 12 People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels, and 9 official Chinese ships operating around Taiwan in the last 24 hours, with 16 aircraft crossing the median line into Taiwan's southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). The heightened military activity follows President Lai Ching-te's recent visits to the United States, prompting speculation that Beijing is launching a new round of war games.
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Similar markets
De-escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Exercises conclude peacefully • 25%
Increased military tension • 25%
Formal diplomatic protests • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Continued military presence • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Engagement in conflict • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence without escalation • 25%
Increased military exercises • 25%
