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Market
Will there be a significant military confrontation between Taiwan and China by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Major news outlets and official government statements
Story
Biden Approves $567 Million Defense Aid to Taiwan Despite China's Warnings
Sep 30, 2024, 06:30 AM
US President Joe Biden on Sunday approved $567 million in defense support for Taiwan, according to a statement from the White House. The aid package, authorized under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), aims to bolster Taiwan's military capabilities amid rising tensions with China, which has been increasing political and military pressure on the self-ruled island. The PDA allows for up to $1 billion per fiscal year in aid to Taiwan, separate from the default cap of $100 million for other countries. Beijing has warned that arming Taiwan will 'backfire'. While the United States does not have formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, it is the island's most significant arms supplier. The precise details of the military assistance were not disclosed.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%