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What will be the outcome of the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas on August 15, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Agreement on Hostages/Prisoners • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Talks Postponed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks fail • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
No official statement • 25%
Official announcements from Israel, Hamas, or international mediators such as the US, Qatar, or Egypt
Story
Israel and Hamas Urged to Resume Ceasefire Talks on August 15 Amid Iran Tensions
Aug 9, 2024, 05:46 PM
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas has intensified, with Israel reportedly considering a pre-emptive strike as it braces for potential retaliatory attacks from Iran and Hezbollah. This follows the assassination of senior leaders, including Hamas's Ismail Haniyeh and a top Hezbollah commander, which has heightened tensions in the region. In response, the mayor of Haifa has advised residents to prepare for possible attacks by stocking up on essentials. Meanwhile, international mediators, including the US, Qatar, and Egypt, are urging Israel and Hamas to resume ceasefire talks on August 15. Yahya Sinwar has been elevated as Hamas's new political chief, with the Qassam Brigades pledging allegiance to him. Iran has indicated it may delay its retaliatory response if a ceasefire is reached, while the Biden administration is pressing for a resolution to the conflict. The situation remains volatile, with diplomatic efforts ongoing to prevent further escalation.
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Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks break down completely • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Cease-fire agreement reached • 25%
Cease-fire talks break down • 25%
Cease-fire agreement delayed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release-for-ceasefire deal • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement not reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement not reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement delayed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement indefinite • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Ceasefire not achieved • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations collapsed • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire agreement partially implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks permanently halted • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage deal • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%