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What will be the outcome of the current ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas by October 31, 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire agreement partially implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Public announcements from the Israeli government, Hamas, or major news outlets like Reuters, BBC, or CNN
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U.S. Confirms Israel Targeted Hamas Officials Amid Ceasefire Talks, Civilian Casualties Reported
Jul 15, 2024, 05:27 PM
The White House National Security Council spokesperson confirmed that Israel has informed the U.S. about targeting senior Hamas officials. Reports of civilian casualties have also emerged, prompting the U.S. to engage with Israeli counterparts for more information. On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli officials Ron Dermer and Tzachi Hanegbi to discuss the latest developments in ceasefire negotiations. The U.S. State Department emphasized Israel's commitment to reaching a ceasefire and expressed serious concern about recent civilian casualties in Gaza. The State Department reiterated that while Israel has the right to target militants, attacks on civilians are not justified.
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Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release agreement reached • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release agreements reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Successful cease-fire • 25%
Unsuccessful cease-fire • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release-for-ceasefire deal • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks break down completely • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations abandoned • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks permanently halted • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Cease-fire agreement reached • 25%
Cease-fire talks break down • 25%
Cease-fire agreement delayed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Ceasefire not achieved • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations collapsed • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%