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What will be the outcome of the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas by August 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks break down completely • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli or Hamas officials, or credible news agencies
Story
Israeli Airstrike in Gaza Kills 90, Including Salameh; Fate of Deif Uncertain
Jul 14, 2024, 02:10 PM
An Israeli airstrike on July 13 targeted senior Hamas military figures in Gaza, resulting in significant casualties. The attack, which took place in the al-Mawasi humanitarian zone in Khan Younis, killed at least 90 Palestinians, including women and children, and injured around 300 others. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) aimed to eliminate Hamas' military chief Mohammed Deif and his deputy, Rafa’a Salameh. While the IDF confirmed the death of Salameh, there remains uncertainty regarding Deif's fate. Hamas officials claim Deif survived the strike, and ceasefire talks continue despite the attack. The strike has been described as one of the deadliest in Gaza in recent weeks, with hospitals overwhelmed by the number of injured. Gaza's health ministry reported that 71 people were killed in a separate strike, which Hamas described as a 'massacre.' Additionally, rescue teams attempting to help victims were also targeted, resulting in casualties among the rescuers.
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Cease-fire agreement reached • 25%
Cease-fire talks break down • 25%
Cease-fire agreement delayed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release-for-ceasefire deal • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Agreement on Hostages/Prisoners • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Talks Postponed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks fail • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
No official statement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks collapse • 25%
Ceasefire agreement partially implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement not reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement not reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement delayed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement indefinite • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached with Barghouti's release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached without Barghouti's release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage deal • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement Reached • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Partial Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Ceasefire not achieved • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations collapsed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire talks continue without agreement • 25%
Ceasefire talks permanently halted • 25%
Other • 25%