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What will be the outcome of the ceasefire agreement on hostilities in Gaza within one month of approval?
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Qatar•Israel•Hamas•Gaza•Doha•Israeli•Mossad•Qatari•Joe Biden•Donald Trump•Trump•Middle East•Steve Witkoff•Egypt•United States•Mohammed Sinwar
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complete cessation of hostilities • 25%
Partial reduction in hostilities • 25%
No change in hostilities • 25%
Increase in hostilities • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies or official statements
Story
Qatar Presents Final Gaza Ceasefire Deal After Breakthrough Talks Involving Envoys of Biden and Trump
Jan 13, 2025, 09:35 AM
Qatar, acting as mediator, has presented Israel and Hamas with a final draft of a ceasefire and hostage release agreement intended to end the over 15-month war in Gaza. The breakthrough was achieved after midnight negotiations in Doha involving Israeli intelligence officials, including the Mossad Chief, the Qatari Prime Minister, and envoys from both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump, including Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. Mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and the United States have agreed on the draft and are awaiting approval from both parties. The agreement aims to secure the release of nearly 100 hostages still held in Gaza. Responses from Israel and Hamas are expected within 24 hours, with the decision on the Hamas side resting with Mohammed Sinwar, leader of Hamas's military wing. There is urgency to finalize the deal before President-elect Trump's inauguration.
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Similar markets
No agreement reached • 25%
60-day ceasefire agreed • 25%
Partial agreement with modifications • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
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Significant decrease in hostilities • 25%
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No change in hostilities • 25%
Increase in hostilities • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Full agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%