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What will be the impact of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire on hostilities in Gaza by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant decrease in hostilities • 25%
Moderate decrease in hostilities • 25%
No change in hostilities • 25%
Increase in hostilities • 25%
Reports from credible news sources or official statements regarding the situation in Gaza
Story
Israel and Hamas Agree to Ceasefire and Hostage Deal Ahead of Trump Inauguration
Jan 14, 2025, 07:29 PM
Israel and Hamas have agreed in principle to a draft ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, as reported by CBS News citing U.S., Arab, and Israeli officials. The agreement, coming ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, is expected to be finalized this week if all goes well. It would involve the release of hostages held by Hamas and a cessation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip. The parties are reportedly preparing public statements regarding the deal.
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Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Mediation talks ongoing • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%