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What will be the outcome of potential Israeli military escalation against Hezbollah by Dec 31, 2024?
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Hezbollah•Lebanon•Netanyahu•Israel•Yoav Gallant•Lloyd Austin•Gallant•Gideon Saar•Amos Hochstein•Houthi missile attack
Resolution / Starting Odds
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale military operation • 25%
No military action • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government, Hezbollah, and verified news reports
Story
Netanyahu Signals Escalation Against Hezbollah in Lebanon Amid Tensions with Gallant Over 100,000 Displaced
Sep 16, 2024, 03:25 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated a potential escalation of military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu stated that the current situation on Israel's northern border requires a shift in the balance of power. This comes amid warnings from Hezbollah about further displacements if Israel proceeds with its military plans, which could affect hundreds of thousands, including 100,000 already displaced people. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has discussed the situation with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, emphasizing the need for military action to return northern residents to their homes. Meanwhile, Netanyahu is considering firing Gallant over disagreements on the Lebanon operation, with Gideon Saar being mentioned as a potential replacement. U.S. officials, including special envoy Amos Hochstein, have cautioned against expanding the conflict, suggesting it may not achieve Israel's goals and could lead to a broader regional conflict. The discussions also touched upon the recent Houthi missile attack and the heightened tensions since October 7.
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Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Full-Scale War • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Successful operation with minimal conflict • 25%
Prolonged conflict with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate with no clear outcome • 25%
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Israeli withdrawal • 25%
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Hezbollah victory • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
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Hezbollah gains territory • 25%
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Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Diplomatic resolution without military action • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Hezbollah gains territory • 25%
Israel gains territory • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict with sporadic attacks • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited military operations • 25%
Hezbollah disarmament • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant escalation • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hezbollah retreats • 25%
Israel retreats • 25%