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What will be the outcome of Israel's military actions against Hezbollah by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited military operations • 25%
Hezbollah disarmament • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government and major news outlets.
Story
Netanyahu Expands War Goals to Include Safe Return of 68,500 Northern Residents Amid Hezbollah Attacks
Sep 17, 2024, 04:30 AM
The Israeli Security Cabinet has updated its war objectives to include the safe return of residents to northern Israel. This decision comes amid ongoing attacks by Iran-backed Hezbollah from Lebanon, which have displaced approximately 68,500 people. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that halting Hezbollah's attacks and ensuring the safe return of residents are now formal war goals. The expansion of these objectives signals a potential escalation of the conflict, with Israel preparing for a wider military operation in Lebanon, and a full-scale war is almost inevitable.
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Successful ground invasion and significant degradation of Hezbollah • 25%
Limited ground invasion with minor impact on Hezbollah • 25%
No ground invasion but continued airstrikes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah remains largely intact • 25%
Hezbollah strengthens • 25%
Inconclusive outcome • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Successful operation with minimal conflict • 25%
Prolonged conflict with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate with no clear outcome • 25%
Israel achieves significant military objectives • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Significant weakening of Hezbollah • 25%
No significant impact on Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah retaliates with significant force • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah strengthens • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Return to status quo • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes without agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel launches ground invasion • 25%
Hezbollah launches major counteroffensive • 25%
Both sides agree to ceasefire • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Hezbollah retreat • 25%
Israel retreat • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict with no major change • 25%
Escalation into a larger regional conflict • 25%
International intervention leading to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Israel Victory • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Decisive victory for Israel • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%