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What will be the outcome of the potential escalation between Israel and Hezbollah by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military action • 25%
Reports from major news agencies and official statements from the Israeli government and Hezbollah
Story
Israel Warns of Disproportionate Response to Hezbollah Attacks on Civilians
Aug 7, 2024, 11:28 PM
Israel has communicated to the United States that any attacks by Hezbollah targeting Israeli civilians will be met with a disproportionate response from the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). This warning comes in the wake of the assassination of a top Hezbollah military commander, which has raised tensions in the region. Israeli envoys have been instructed to convey that attacks by Iran and Hezbollah will not go unanswered. Israel told the U.S. Hezbollah will pay a "disproportionate price" if attacks harm civilians, according to two Israeli officials. The situation underscores the fragile security environment and the potential for escalation in the Middle East.
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict with sporadic attacks • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without ceasefire • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant escalation • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hezbollah retreats • 25%
Israel retreats • 25%
No conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Full-Scale War • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale military operation • 25%
No military action • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hezbollah victory • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
