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What will be the outcome of a potential Israeli military action against Hezbollah by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Operation called off • 25%
Successful operation with minimal conflict • 25%
Prolonged conflict with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate with no clear outcome • 25%
Verified news reports from major outlets like Reuters, BBC, or official Israeli military announcements
Story
Israeli FM Accuses Nasrallah of Using Lebanese Civilians as Human Shields for Hamas
Sep 23, 2024, 06:30 AM
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz has accused Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah of committing war crimes by using Lebanese civilians as human shields. Katz stated that Nasrallah is placing missiles and weapons in Lebanese homes and villages to threaten Israeli civilians. He emphasized that Israel will not accept this situation and will act with full force to change it. Katz also mentioned that Nasrallah is burning Lebanon for Hamas in Gaza. He urged Lebanese civilians to evacuate their homes to avoid being caught in the conflict.
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Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited military operations • 25%
Hezbollah disarmament • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah remains largely intact • 25%
Hezbollah strengthens • 25%
Inconclusive outcome • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale military operation • 25%
No military action • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Successful ground invasion and significant degradation of Hezbollah • 25%
Limited ground invasion with minor impact on Hezbollah • 25%
No ground invasion but continued airstrikes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hezbollah gains territory • 25%
Israeli forces gain territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Significant weakening of Hezbollah • 25%
No significant impact on Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah retaliates with significant force • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful offensive with significant Israeli casualties • 25%
Failed offensive with significant Hezbollah casualties • 25%
Stalemate with no significant casualties on either side • 25%
No major military action • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah strengthens • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel launches ground invasion • 25%
Hezbollah launches major counteroffensive • 25%
Both sides agree to ceasefire • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Hezbollah retreat • 25%
Israel retreat • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes without agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict with no major change • 25%
Escalation into a larger regional conflict • 25%
International intervention leading to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Israel Victory • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%