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What will be the outcome of Mozambique's political unrest following the disputed election by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Frelimo retains power • 25%
Opposition gains power • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and official government announcements
Story
Over 1,500 Prisoners Escape in Mozambique, Causing 33 Deaths and 15 Injuries; 150 Recaptured
Dec 25, 2024, 08:46 PM
More than 1,534 prisoners escaped from a high-security prison in Maputo, Mozambique, amid ongoing protests over disputed election results. The escape occurred on Christmas Day, following the third day of unrest triggered by the confirmation of the ruling Frelimo party's victory in the recent elections. The prison break resulted in at least 33 deaths and 15 injuries during clashes with prison staff. National police chief Bernardino Rafael reported that 150 of the escapees have been recaptured, including 29 terrorists. The unrest in Mozambique has led to a total of at least 150 deaths since the announcement of the election results, with reports of violence and vandalism across the country.
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Coalition government formed • 25%
Frelimo retains power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Frelimo confirmed as winner • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Opposition declared winner • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Opposition Gains Power • 25%
Continued Unrest • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Official condemnation • 25%
Mediation initiated • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No Major Action • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
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Stable with minor unrest • 25%
Stable with resolution of disputes • 25%
Unstable with significant protests • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other response • 25%
Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
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Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
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101 to 200 • 25%