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Will Mozambique declare a state of emergency due to protests by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official government statements or credible news reports
Story
Over 1,534 Prisoners Escape Maputo Jail Amid Protests, 33 Dead and 15 Injured
Dec 25, 2024, 09:37 PM
On December 25, 2024, more than 1,500 prisoners escaped from a maximum-security prison in Maputo, Mozambique, amid ongoing protests linked to the disputed results of the recent presidential election. The unrest, which has entered its third day, followed the confirmation of the ruling Frelimo party's victory, a result that has been met with accusations of fraud from opposition groups. The prison break occurred during a riot that resulted in at least 33 deaths and 15 injuries, according to local police. The escapees took advantage of the holiday season, when fewer guards were on duty. As of now, approximately 150 of the escapees have been recaptured. The situation has raised concerns over public safety and the response of law enforcement amid the political turmoil in the country.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Opposition Gains Power • 25%
Continued Unrest • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Frelimo retains power • 25%
Opposition gains power • 25%
No Major Action • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Official condemnation • 25%
Mediation initiated • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Opposition declared winner • 25%
Frelimo confirmed as winner • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New elections called • 25%