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Will all escaped prisoners from the Maputo prison break be recaptured by March 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Mozambique national police or government reports
Story
Over 1,500 Prisoners Escape in Mozambique, Causing 33 Deaths and 15 Injuries; 150 Recaptured
Dec 25, 2024, 08:46 PM
More than 1,534 prisoners escaped from a high-security prison in Maputo, Mozambique, amid ongoing protests over disputed election results. The escape occurred on Christmas Day, following the third day of unrest triggered by the confirmation of the ruling Frelimo party's victory in the recent elections. The prison break resulted in at least 33 deaths and 15 injuries during clashes with prison staff. National police chief Bernardino Rafael reported that 150 of the escapees have been recaptured, including 29 terrorists. The unrest in Mozambique has led to a total of at least 150 deaths since the announcement of the election results, with reports of violence and vandalism across the country.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other Outcome • 25%
Minority Recaptured • 25%
Majority Recaptured • 25%
No Significant Recapture • 25%
100 to 500 • 25%
Less than 100 • 25%
501 to 1000 • 25%
More than 1000 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
In another state of Brazil • 25%
Within the Federal District • 25%
Not recaptured by April 30, 2025 • 25%
Outside Brazil • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Investigation ongoing by June 30, 2025 • 25%
Internal collusion suspected • 25%
Security breach identified • 25%
No significant findings • 25%