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Will the disputed Mozambique presidential election results be resolved by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Mozambique's electoral commission or international observers
Story
1,534 Inmates Escape Mozambique's Machava Prison; 33 Dead Amid Election Unrest
Dec 26, 2024, 12:19 AM
On December 25, more than 1,500 prisoners, specifically 1,534 inmates, escaped from the high-security Machava prison near Mozambique's capital, Maputo, amid ongoing protests over disputed presidential election results. The prison break occurred during the third day of unrest triggered by the controversial confirmation of the long-ruling Frelimo party as the winner of recent elections, which the opposition has denounced as fraudulent. According to Mozambique's police general commander, Bernardino Rafael, at least 33 people were killed and 15 injured during riots at the prison. Police have recaptured around 150 escapees so far. The mass escape has raised concerns about public safety, with authorities warning of a potential increase in crime in the capital.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Frelimo retains power • 25%
Other political outcome • 25%
Power-sharing agreement • 25%
Opposition gains power • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Frelimo retains power • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Opposition Gains Power • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Continued Unrest • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
No Major Action • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
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Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
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No • 50%
Other • 25%
New leader from MDM • 25%
New leader from Renamo • 25%
Venâncio Mondlane • 25%