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Will there be an international intervention in Mozambique due to ongoing unrest by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from international organizations such as the United Nations or African Union
Story
Over 1,500 Prisoners Escape in Mozambique, Causing 33 Deaths and 15 Injuries; 150 Recaptured
Dec 25, 2024, 08:46 PM
More than 1,534 prisoners escaped from a high-security prison in Maputo, Mozambique, amid ongoing protests over disputed election results. The escape occurred on Christmas Day, following the third day of unrest triggered by the confirmation of the ruling Frelimo party's victory in the recent elections. The prison break resulted in at least 33 deaths and 15 injuries during clashes with prison staff. National police chief Bernardino Rafael reported that 150 of the escapees have been recaptured, including 29 terrorists. The unrest in Mozambique has led to a total of at least 150 deaths since the announcement of the election results, with reports of violence and vandalism across the country.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant action • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Mediation efforts initiated • 25%
Other response • 25%
Diplomatic Talks • 25%
Sanctions Imposed • 25%
No Major Action • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Mediation initiated • 25%
Official condemnation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Frelimo retains power • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Government Concessions • 25%
Continued Unrest • 25%
Opposition Gains Power • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
NATO-led intervention • 25%
No international intervention • 25%
Other international intervention • 25%
UN-led intervention • 25%
Unstable with significant protests • 25%
Escalating into crisis • 25%
Stable with resolution of disputes • 25%
Stable with minor unrest • 25%