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What will be the outcome of Israel's offer to Yahya Sinwar by end of 2024?
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Israel•Hamas•Yahya Sinwar•Israeli•Gal Hirsch•Bloomberg•Yoav Gallant•Britain•Jewish Chronicle•Sinwar•Gaza
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sinwar accepts and leaves Gaza • 25%
Sinwar rejects and stays in Gaza • 25%
Sinwar accepts but fails to leave Gaza • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from Israeli or Hamas authorities, verified news reports
Story
Israel Offers Safe Exit to Hamas Leader in Exchange for Hostages, Signals Possible Truce
Sep 11, 2024, 03:31 AM
Israel has offered Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar safe passage to another country in exchange for the release of Israeli hostages and Hamas relinquishing power. This proposal, which was confirmed by hostage envoy Gal Hirsch in an interview with Bloomberg, aims to end the ongoing hostilities. Israeli defense chief Yoav Gallant mentioned that while a temporary truce with Hamas is possible, a permanent end to the war remains uncertain. The accuracy and sourcing of a report by Britain's Jewish Chronicle on Sinwar's plans to escape Gaza have been questioned.
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Sinwar accepts and hostages released • 25%
Sinwar rejects proposal • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Proposal withdrawn • 25%
Safe passage granted • 25%
Safe passage denied • 25%
Still in negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Leaves Gaza with family • 25%
Stays in Gaza • 25%
Arrested or captured • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Captured • 25%
Killed • 25%
Still at large • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Captured by Israeli forces • 25%
Killed by Israeli forces • 25%
Continues as leader • 25%
Steps down or replaced • 25%
Granted safe passage • 25%
Remains in Gaza • 25%
Captured by Israeli forces • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Offer rejected • 25%
Cease-fire agreement reached and hostages released • 25%
Cease-fire agreement reached but hostages not released • 25%
No cease-fire agreement but hostages released • 25%
No cease-fire agreement and hostages not released • 25%
Captured by IDF • 25%
Killed by IDF • 25%
Still at large • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Hostage release agreement • 25%
Exchange for Palestinian prisoners • 25%
Return to Hamas without conditions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%