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Market
Will Yahya Sinwar accept Israel's offer of safe passage by December 31, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Hamas or Israel, or credible news sources
Story
Israel Offers Safe Passage to Yahya Sinwar in Exchange for 101 Hostages
Sep 11, 2024, 08:22 AM
Israel has proposed offering Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar safe passage out of Gaza in exchange for the release of 101 hostages held by the group and for Hamas to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip. This proposal comes amid ongoing efforts by the US, Qatar, and Egypt to broker a new cease-fire agreement. Israel’s chief negotiator, Gal Hirsch, emphasized the country's readiness to provide safe passage to Sinwar and his family during an interview with Bloomberg. Doubts remain about whether the two sides can reach a cease-fire accord.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Safe passage granted • 25%
Safe passage denied • 25%
Still in negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Leaves Gaza with family • 25%
Stays in Gaza • 25%
Arrested or captured • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sinwar accepts and leaves Gaza • 25%
Sinwar rejects and stays in Gaza • 25%
Sinwar accepts but fails to leave Gaza • 25%
Other • 25%