Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of the Israeli search for Yahya Sinwar by the end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Captured • 25%
Killed • 25%
Still at large • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli government or major news outlets
Story
US Provides Ground-Penetrating Radar to Israel in Hunt for Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar
Aug 25, 2024, 10:02 AM
The United States has provided Israel with ground-penetrating radar technology to assist in the search for Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas. This technology allows Israeli forces to detect heat signatures of individuals entering or exiting tunnel entrances. Despite these efforts, Sinwar has successfully evaded capture, which has hindered Israel's military success in the ongoing conflict that began after Sinwar orchestrated the October 7 attacks. The American intelligence service is actively involved, with special teams working to locate Sinwar using this advanced technology, although they have not yet succeeded. Additionally, a special unit within the Shin Bet is tasked with intercepting Sinwar's communications. The intelligence-sharing efforts between Israel and the United States are reportedly unbalanced.
View original story
Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Granted safe passage • 25%
Remains in Gaza • 25%
Captured by Israeli forces • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Confirmed killed • 25%
Confirmed alive • 25%
Status unclear • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Death Confirmed • 25%
Injury Confirmed • 25%
Unharmed Confirmed • 25%
Status Remains Unconfirmed • 25%
Captured by IDF • 25%
Killed by IDF • 25%
Still at large • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Gaza Strip • 25%
West Bank • 25%
Outside Palestinian Territories • 25%
Not captured • 25%
Sinwar accepts and leaves Gaza • 25%
Sinwar rejects and stays in Gaza • 25%
Sinwar accepts but fails to leave Gaza • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas influence • 25%
Moderate reduction in Hamas influence • 25%
No change in Hamas influence • 25%
Increase in Hamas influence • 25%