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Market
Primary outcome of negotiations involving Yahya Sinwar's body by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hostage release agreement • 25%
Exchange for Palestinian prisoners • 25%
Return to Hamas without conditions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli government or credible news sources
Story
Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar Killed by Gunshot and Shell Fire, Autopsy Confirms
Oct 18, 2024, 06:41 PM
Dr. Chen Kugel, director of the Abu Kabir Forensic Department, confirmed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed by a gunshot wound to the head. The autopsy revealed that Sinwar died slowly over several hours due to severe brain damage caused by the bullet. Additionally, Sinwar was hit in the arm during a firefight with Israeli soldiers and by shell fire. His body has been transferred to a secret location in Israel and may be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations for the release of hostages.
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Similar markets
Cease-fire agreement reached and hostages released • 25%
Cease-fire agreement reached but hostages not released • 25%
No cease-fire agreement but hostages released • 25%
No cease-fire agreement and hostages not released • 25%
Sinwar accepts and hostages released • 25%
Sinwar rejects proposal • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Proposal withdrawn • 25%
Sinwar accepts and leaves Gaza • 25%
Sinwar rejects and stays in Gaza • 25%
Sinwar accepts but fails to leave Gaza • 25%
Other • 25%
Leaves Gaza with family • 25%
Stays in Gaza • 25%
Arrested or captured • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Safe passage granted • 25%
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Still in negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Hostages released • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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