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What will be the outcome of Hezbollah's response to an Israeli ground incursion by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Israel gains ground • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Major news outlets like Reuters, BBC, and Al Jazeera
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Hezbollah's Naim Qassem Says Group Ready for Israeli Ground Incursion After Nasrallah's Assassination
Sep 30, 2024, 09:29 AM
Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, has declared that the group is prepared to confront any Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon. This statement comes in the wake of the assassination of Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, last week. Qassem emphasized that the resistance forces are ready for ground combat and confident in their ability to emerge victorious. He noted that Hezbollah's operations have continued unabated despite the recent leadership loss, and the group remains steadfast in its commitment to defend Lebanon against Israeli aggression. Qassem also mentioned that the battle could be long, and the group is prepared for any scenario.
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Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
No ground incursion • 25%
Hezbollah successfully repels incursion • 25%
Israel successfully advances • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No incursion occurs • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale retaliation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Rocket Attacks • 25%
Ground Combat • 25%
Combination of Both • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Israeli Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No Ground Combat • 25%
Significant civilian casualties • 25%
Significant military casualties • 25%
Both civilian and military casualties • 25%
Minimal or no casualties • 25%
Successful offensive with significant Israeli casualties • 25%
Failed offensive with significant Hezbollah casualties • 25%
Stalemate with no significant casualties on either side • 25%
No major military action • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Successful operation with minimal conflict • 25%
Prolonged conflict with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate with no clear outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into full-scale war • 25%
Status quo with intermittent skirmishes • 25%
Hezbollah disarmed by international intervention • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation into Full-Scale War • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant weakening of Hezbollah • 25%
No significant impact on Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah retaliates with significant force • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hezbollah gains territory • 25%
Israeli forces gain territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%