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How will Hezbollah respond to the Israeli ground operation by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale retaliation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from Hezbollah or credible news sources like ABC, CBS, BBC, or Reuters
Story
Israel Prepares Imminent Limited Ground Operation in Lebanon, US Officials Say
Sep 30, 2024, 03:10 PM
Israel is reportedly preparing to launch a limited ground operation in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah positions along the border. According to multiple US officials, including statements to ABC and CBS, the operation could start imminently and is intended to clear out militant infrastructure to protect Israeli border communities. The US believes the incursion will be smaller in scale compared to Israel's 2006 war with Hezbollah and will last a shorter period of time. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has indicated that the next stage of the war against Hezbollah will begin soon. Reports suggest that Israel has already conducted some special forces raids within Lebanese borders in preparation for the larger operation.
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Rocket Attacks • 25%
Ground Combat • 25%
Combination of Both • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Israel gains ground • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased rocket attacks on Israel • 25%
Ground engagement with IDF • 25%
Diplomatic response • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Retaliatory attacks on Israel • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation only • 25%
Increased arms smuggling efforts • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased rocket attacks • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah successfully repels incursion • 25%
Israel successfully advances • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No incursion occurs • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Another rocket attack on Israel • 25%
Ground assault on Israeli positions • 25%
No further military response • 25%
Other • 25%
Launch more missile attacks • 25%
Increase ground operations near the border • 25%
Seek a ceasefire agreement • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Retaliate with another attack • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased airstrikes on Hezbollah targets • 25%
Deployment of additional troops to the northern border • 25%
Initiating peace talks with Lebanon • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Naval blockade • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%