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What will be the outcome of Hezbollah's next major military action against Israel by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful offensive with significant Israeli casualties • 25%
Failed offensive with significant Hezbollah casualties • 25%
Stalemate with no significant casualties on either side • 25%
No major military action • 25%
Verified reports from reputable news agencies such as Reuters, Al Jazeera, and BBC
Story
Hezbollah Claims No Israeli Troops in Lebanon, Warns of More Strikes and First Round of Clashes
Oct 2, 2024, 10:18 AM
On October 1 and October 2, Mohammad Afif, the head of Hezbollah's media office, stated to Reuters and Al Jazeera that no Israeli troops have entered Lebanese territory and that Hezbollah has not engaged in direct ground clashes with Israeli forces. He emphasized that the strikes on Tel Aviv earlier were just the beginning and warned that Hezbollah has enough fighters, weapons, and ammunition to push back Israel. Afif also mentioned that Hezbollah is 'only in the first round' following clashes with Israeli troops in southern Lebanon.
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Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Israeli Victory • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Successful operation with minimal conflict • 25%
Prolonged conflict with significant casualties • 25%
Stalemate with no clear outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Airstrike • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Naval blockade • 25%
Cyber attack • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued low-level skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Limited military operations • 25%
Hezbollah disarmament • 25%
Successful interception by Israel • 25%
Partial damage • 25%
Significant damage • 25%
No attack • 25%
Missile attack • 25%
Drone attack • 25%
Ground incursion • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into full-scale war • 25%
Status quo with intermittent skirmishes • 25%
Hezbollah disarmed by international intervention • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation into Full-Scale War • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant civilian casualties • 25%
Significant military casualties • 25%
Both civilian and military casualties • 25%
Minimal or no casualties • 25%
Hezbollah gains territory • 25%
Israeli forces gain territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Israel gains ground • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%