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What will be the outcome of any ground combat between Hezbollah and Israeli forces by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Israeli Victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
No Ground Combat • 25%
Verified news reports from major news outlets and official statements from both parties
Story
Hezbollah Ready for Israeli Ground Incursion, Confident of Victory, Says Deputy Chief
Sep 30, 2024, 09:17 AM
Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, has declared that the group is prepared for any potential Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon. Qassem emphasized that Hezbollah's fighters are ready to engage in ground combat and are confident that Israel will not achieve its goals. He stated that the resistance is prepared for a long battle and all options are open. Qassem also mentioned that despite ongoing conflicts, Hezbollah's military capabilities remain intact, and their rockets continue to be operational. He assured that Hezbollah will emerge victorious and that their actions are part of an ongoing battle plan.
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Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
No ground incursion • 25%
Hezbollah gains territory • 25%
Israeli forces gain territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued low-intensity conflict • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Escalation into Full-Scale War • 25%
Continued Skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Israel gains ground • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Escalation into full-scale war • 25%
Status quo with intermittent skirmishes • 25%
Hezbollah disarmed by international intervention • 25%
Escalation to full-scale war • 25%
Return to status quo • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued skirmishes without agreement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Israeli Victory • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict with no major change • 25%
Escalation into a larger regional conflict • 25%
International intervention leading to peace talks • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Israel Victory • 25%
Hezbollah Victory • 25%
Ongoing Conflict • 25%
Continued hostilities • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Israel launches ground invasion • 25%
Hezbollah launches major counteroffensive • 25%
Both sides agree to ceasefire • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Hezbollah retreat • 25%
Israel retreat • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah remains largely intact • 25%
Hezbollah strengthens • 25%
Inconclusive outcome • 25%
Israel declares victory • 25%
Hezbollah declares victory • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Conflict continues • 25%