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What will be the outcome of Germany's coalition crisis talks by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Coalition remains unchanged • 25%
New coalition formed • 25%
Early elections announced • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcement from the German government or reputable news outlets
Story
German Chancellor Scholz Fires FDP Leader Lindner After Call for Early Elections
Nov 6, 2024, 07:59 PM
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democrats (FDP), the smallest party in the coalition government, according to government sources. The dismissal follows Lindner's proposal for early elections to resolve a budget crisis, a suggestion Scholz rejected. Lindner, who had threatened to leave the coalition, was sacked amid ongoing disputes over the government's economic strategy. The three parties in the ruling coalition are engaged in crisis talks at the chancellery. The move raises the prospect of an early election and casts uncertainty over the future of Germany's three-party ruling coalition. Scholz is expected to hold a confidence vote in mid-January, which could trigger new elections by March 2025. Scholz is set to make a statement shortly.
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No Change • 25%
New Coalition Formed • 25%
Snap Elections Called • 25%
Other • 25%
New coalition formed • 25%
Minority government • 25%
Early elections • 25%
Other • 25%
Social Democrats-Greens • 25%
Conservatives-Greens • 25%
Grand Coalition (Social Democrats-Conservatives) • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains intact • 25%
New coalition formed • 25%
Snap election called • 25%
Other • 25%
Scholz wins the vote • 33%
Scholz loses the vote • 33%
Vote postponed • 34%
Scholz's party wins majority • 25%
Opposition party wins majority • 25%
Coalition government formed • 25%
Hung parliament • 25%
SPD-Green coalition • 25%
CDU/CSU-Green coalition • 25%
SPD-CDU/CSU coalition • 25%
Other coalition • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
CDU wins majority • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
Other party wins majority • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
Coalition government formed excluding AfD • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
CDU/CSU wins majority • 25%
AfD wins majority • 25%
SPD wins majority • 25%
Other coalition forms majority • 25%
CDU/CSU and FDP • 25%
SPD and Greens • 25%
AfD and CDU/CSU • 25%
Other coalition • 25%