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Outcome of German coalition talks post-January 2025 confidence vote?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
New coalition formed • 25%
Minority government • 25%
Early elections • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the German government or major news outlets such as Deutsche Welle or BBC.
Story
Scholz Fires Finance Minister Lindner as German Coalition Collapses; Confidence Vote Set for January
Nov 6, 2024, 08:59 PM
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), amid disputes over the government's economic strategy, budget policy, and decarbonization efforts. Lindner, whose FDP is the smallest party in the three-party coalition, had proposed early elections to resolve a budget deadlock, a suggestion Scholz rejected. Scholz stated that the dismissal was 'necessary to prevent harm to our country.' Following his dismissal, Lindner called Scholz's economic plan 'weak,' and the FDP has withdrawn its ministers from the government. The dismissal has led to the collapse of the ruling coalition. In response, Scholz announced a parliamentary confidence vote on January 15, which could trigger early elections by the end of March if it fails.
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