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What will be the outcome of diplomatic actions between Turkey and Kenya by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolution and release of abductees • 25%
Continued diplomatic tensions • 25%
No significant diplomatic action • 25%
Other • 25%
Official diplomatic communications or reputable news outlets
Story
Seven Turkish Citizens and British National Abducted in Nairobi by Turkish Intelligence
Oct 19, 2024, 04:16 PM
Seven Turkish citizens under UN protection were abducted in Kileleshwa, Nairobi on Friday by individuals believed to be agents of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT), in coordination with Kenyan security officials. The abduction is attributed to their links to the Gülen movement. A British national was also reported among the abducted. Families of the abducted Turkish refugees, including a family of four, are searching for their loved ones. The refugees were abducted at gunpoint. The incident has raised concerns about Kenya’s safety for refugees and the involvement of Turkish intelligence in the country. Pressure is mounting on Kenya for the release of the abducted individuals.
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Successful mediation • 25%
Failed mediation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
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Improved relations with Syrian government • 25%
Increased tensions with Syrian government • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
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No significant change • 25%
Deterioration in relations • 25%
Formal alliance or treaty • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Resolution through dialogue • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
Military confrontation occurs • 25%
Diplomatic resolution reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%