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What will be the outcome of Denmark-U.S. negotiations on military presence in Greenland by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased U.S. presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Reduced U.S. presence • 25%
Denmark increases own military presence • 25%
Official announcements or agreements from the Danish or U.S. government
Story
Denmark Proposes Increased U.S. Military Presence in Greenland After Private Messages to Trump Team
Jan 11, 2025, 01:14 PM
Denmark has sent private messages to the team of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, expressing readiness to discuss enhancing security in Greenland or increasing the U.S. military presence on the island, according to Axios, citing two sources with knowledge of the issue. This move comes in response to Trump's recent statements emphasizing the strategic importance of Greenland to U.S. national security and hinting at possible military or economic actions, including imposing tariffs on Denmark, to control the island. The Danish government has acknowledged its past neglect of Greenland's defense, and the international community is closely watching Greenland's strategic position.
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No significant change • 25%
Greenland gains more autonomy • 25%
Denmark rejects proposal • 25%
U.S. purchases Greenland • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New cooperation agreement • 25%
Greenland independence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased U.S. military presence • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No change in current status • 25%
Joint security measures • 25%
No official response • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Agreement rejected • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Denmark strengthens defense of Greenland • 25%
U.S.-Denmark agreement on Greenland • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Third-party mediation • 25%
Greenland sold to U.S. • 25%
Denmark rejects U.S. proposal • 25%
U.S. expands military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Denmark retains control without negotiations • 25%
US acquires Greenland • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tensions escalated • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increased U.S. military presence • 25%
Enhanced security agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
Withdraw from Greenland • 25%
Decrease military presence • 25%
Maintain current presence • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Economic agreements • 25%
Formal acquisition negotiations • 25%