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What will be the outcome in swing states PA, MI, and WI in the 2024 Presidential Election?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Kamala Harris wins all three • 25%
Donald Trump wins all three • 25%
Each wins at least one • 25%
No winner declared by November 7 • 25%
Official election results published by the Federal Election Commission and respective state election offices
Story
Kamala Harris Leads Trump by 4 Points in Final PBS News/NPR/Marist Pre-Election Survey
Nov 5, 2024, 11:34 PM
On the eve of the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 4-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. Harris has the support of 51% of likely voters compared to Trump’s 47%, according to the final survey. The race remains tight, with significant attention on swing states and suburban areas. Harris is narrowly winning suburban Hamilton County, Indiana, which Trump won by 7 points in 2020. Voting ends soon, and the first wave of results is expected shortly.
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Similar markets
Trump wins all four states • 25%
Harris wins one state • 25%
Harris wins two states • 25%
Harris wins three or more states • 25%
Trump wins PA, WI, MI • 25%
Harris wins PA, WI, MI • 25%
Trump wins 2 of 3 • 25%
Harris wins 2 of 3 • 25%
Trump wins majority • 33%
Harris wins majority • 33%
Split evenly • 34%
Donald Trump wins majority • 25%
Kamala Harris wins majority • 25%
Other candidate wins majority • 25%
Split decision • 25%
Harris wins majority of battleground states • 25%
Trump wins majority of battleground states • 25%
Each wins an equal number of battleground states • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Democratic Win • 25%
Republican Win • 25%
Third Party Win • 25%
Other • 25%
Biden wins Pennsylvania • 17%
Biden wins Michigan • 17%
Trump wins Michigan • 17%
Biden wins Wisconsin • 17%
Trump wins Wisconsin • 17%
Harris wins Florida • 25%
Trump wins Florida • 25%
Harris wins Pennsylvania • 25%
Trump wins Pennsylvania • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
No clear winner • 25%
Other Democrat • 25%
Other Republican • 25%
Other Democratic Candidate • 25%
Other Republican Candidate • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
No Winner Declared • 25%
Undecided/No Majority • 25%
Other Candidate • 34%
Joe Biden • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Nikki Haley • 25%
Trump wins majority • 25%
Harris wins majority • 25%
Biden wins majority • 25%
Split results • 25%
Kamala Harris • 33%
Other • 25%
No winner declared by December 2024 • 25%
Donald Trump • 33%
Other Candidate • 34%
Split between multiple candidates • 34%
Donald Trump • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Nikki Haley • 25%