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Who will win the majority of key swing states in the 2024 Presidential Election?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Kamala Harris wins majority of swing states • 25%
Donald Trump wins majority of swing states • 25%
Split evenly • 25%
Other candidate wins majority • 25%
Official election results from swing state election boards
Story
Kamala Harris Leads Trump by 4 Points in Final PBS News/NPR/Marist Pre-Election Survey
Nov 5, 2024, 11:34 PM
On the eve of the 2024 presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 4-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. Harris has the support of 51% of likely voters compared to Trump’s 47%, according to the final survey. The race remains tight, with significant attention on swing states and suburban areas. Harris is narrowly winning suburban Hamilton County, Indiana, which Trump won by 7 points in 2020. Voting ends soon, and the first wave of results is expected shortly.
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Similar markets
Split between multiple candidates • 34%
Donald Trump • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Nikki Haley • 25%
Biden wins Pennsylvania • 17%
Biden wins Michigan • 17%
Trump wins Michigan • 17%
Biden wins Wisconsin • 17%
Trump wins Wisconsin • 17%
Harris wins Florida • 25%
Trump wins Florida • 25%
Harris wins Pennsylvania • 25%
Trump wins Pennsylvania • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Nikki Haley • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Other Democratic Candidate • 25%
Other Republican Candidate • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Tie • 25%
Other • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Other Democratic candidate • 25%
Other Republican candidate • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Other (Third-party candidate) • 25%
Tie between candidates • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Other Democratic Candidate • 25%
Other Republican Candidate • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Other • 25%
Trump wins majority • 25%
Harris wins majority • 25%
Biden wins majority • 25%
Split results • 25%
Kamala Harris wins California • 25%
Donald Trump wins Texas • 25%
Kamala Harris wins Florida • 25%
Donald Trump wins Ohio • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Other Democratic Candidate • 25%
Other Republican Candidate • 25%