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What will be the outcome in key swing states in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Trump wins majority • 33%
Harris wins majority • 33%
Split evenly • 34%
Official election results as reported by major news outlets like CNN, BBC, or the Associated Press
Story
Trump Leads Harris 52%-48% in Latest FiveThirtyEight Forecasts as Election Odds Shift
Oct 18, 2024, 08:08 PM
In recent forecasts, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight model shows Donald Trump taking a slight lead over Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential race. Trump's chances of winning have risen to 52%, compared to Harris's 48%, marking a shift from previous projections where Harris held a lead. Notably, Trump last led the forecast in mid-September. The model indicates that Trump's advantage extends to key swing states, potentially securing 272 electoral votes to Harris's 266. This change comes after Harris's national lead decreased to 2.3 percentage points from a peak of 3.5 points on October 2. Trump has capitalized on this momentum, criticizing Harris by calling her a "loser" who "doesn't have the energy of a rabbit." Betting markets and political forecasts reflect this shift, with Republicans' Senate odds at 80% and increased odds for Trump in crucial states like Pennsylvania.
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Kamala Harris wins majority • 25%
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Biden wins Michigan • 17%
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Georgia • 33%
Pennsylvania • 33%
Wisconsin • 33%
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Split between multiple candidates • 34%
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