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What will be the most widely accepted theory on Covid-19 origin by Dec 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Wuhan market animals • 25%
Lab leak • 25%
Zoonotic spillover from another source • 25%
Other • 25%
Major scientific consensus reports and publications
Story
New Study Links Covid-19 Origin to Wuhan Market Animals, Including Raccoon Dogs
Sep 19, 2024, 06:03 PM
A new study published in the journal 'Cell' on Thursday provides new evidence supporting the theory that the Covid-19 pandemic originated from infected animals at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China, in late 2019. The study, which analyzed 800 surface samples collected from wildlife stalls, suggests that the virus most likely spilled over from animals sold at the market, including raccoon dogs. This finding aligns with previous research that identified the market as a significant site for early Covid-19 cases. The study also refutes earlier claims by the same authors, indicating that the pandemic likely started with Lineage A, although early market cases were all Lineage B. Despite the new evidence, some scientists have raised concerns about the study's methodology and conclusions, calling for further investigation.
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Natural spillover from animals at Huanan Market • 25%
Laboratory leak • 25%
Other natural origin • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Wuhan Market Animal Origin • 25%
Laboratory Leak • 25%
Other Natural Origin • 25%
Still Undetermined • 25%
Natural spillover confirmed • 25%
Lab origin confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive evidence • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural spillover from animals to humans • 25%
Laboratory leak • 25%
Other natural source • 25%
No consensus reached • 25%
Lab Leak • 25%
Natural Origin • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Wuhan Market Animals • 25%
Laboratory Origin • 25%
Other Natural Source • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Strongly Agree • 25%
Somewhat Agree • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Disagree • 25%
Majority believe U.S. lab origin • 25%
Majority believe Chinese lab origin • 25%
Majority believe natural origin • 25%
Majority remain undecided • 25%
Supports natural spillover • 25%
Supports lab origin • 25%
Inconclusive or mixed results • 25%
No significant new studies • 25%
Supports natural spillover theory • 25%
Supports lab leak theory • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Supports animal origin theory • 25%
Supports lab leak theory • 25%
Supports new theory • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Support natural spillover theory • 25%
Support lab leak theory • 25%
Call for further investigation • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%