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Predominant theory of COVID-19 origin by end of 2024?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Wuhan Market Animal Origin • 25%
Laboratory Leak • 25%
Other Natural Origin • 25%
Still Undetermined • 25%
Scientific consensus and major publications in peer-reviewed journals
Story
New 'Cell' Study Links COVID-19 Origin to Wuhan Market Animals in 2019
Sep 19, 2024, 06:13 PM
A new study published in 'Cell' on Thursday provides substantial evidence supporting the theory that the COVID-19 pandemic likely originated from infected animals at Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Market in late 2019. The study, involving genetic analysis of environmental samples, suggests that humans first caught the virus from animals sold at the market. This research contradicts previous claims made by the same authors in a 2022 Science paper. The latest findings argue that the pandemic most likely started with Lineage A, although early market cases were all Lineage B. The study also found that the common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 linked to the Huanan market matches the global common ancestor. Based on 800 surface samples, the study identified raccoon dog DNA among the environmental samples. Despite these findings, some scientists have raised concerns about the study's premises and conclusions, urging for an investigation into potential scientific misconduct.
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Natural spillover from animals at Huanan Market • 25%
Laboratory leak • 25%
Other natural origin • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Wuhan market animals • 25%
Lab leak • 25%
Zoonotic spillover from another source • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural spillover confirmed • 25%
Lab origin confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive evidence • 25%
Other • 25%
Wuhan Market Animals • 25%
Laboratory Origin • 25%
Other Natural Source • 25%
Unknown • 25%
New animal host identified • 25%
New genetic evidence supporting animal origin • 25%
New evidence supporting laboratory origin • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural spillover from animals to humans • 25%
Laboratory leak • 25%
Other natural source • 25%
No consensus reached • 25%
Lab Leak • 25%
Natural Origin • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Supports natural spillover • 25%
Supports lab origin • 25%
Inconclusive or mixed results • 25%
No significant new studies • 25%
Majority believe U.S. lab origin • 25%
Majority believe Chinese lab origin • 25%
Majority believe natural origin • 25%
Majority remain undecided • 25%
Lab origin • 25%
Natural origin • 25%
Unsure/No opinion • 25%
Other theories • 25%