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What will be the consensus of the scientific community on the origin of COVID-19 by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Natural spillover from animals to humans • 25%
Laboratory leak • 25%
Other natural source • 25%
No consensus reached • 25%
Statements from major scientific bodies and publications in recognized scientific journals
Story
New Study Links COVID-19 Origins to Wuhan Market Animals, Including Raccoon Dog DNA
Sep 19, 2024, 07:30 PM
A new study published in the journal Cell provides substantial evidence supporting the theory that the COVID-19 pandemic originated from infected animals sold at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China. The study, which analyzed over 800 surface samples collected from wildlife stalls, points to a natural spillover of the virus from animals to humans. This genetic analysis, which includes raccoon dog DNA, contradicts earlier claims and suggests that the pandemic likely began in early December 2019 with Lineage A, although early market cases were all Lineage B. The research has sparked controversy, with some scientists questioning its premises and calling for an investigation into possible scientific misconduct.
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Natural spillover confirmed • 25%
Lab origin confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive evidence • 25%
Other • 25%
Wuhan market animals • 25%
Lab leak • 25%
Zoonotic spillover from another source • 25%
Other • 25%
Lab Leak • 25%
Natural Origin • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural spillover from animals at Huanan Market • 25%
Laboratory leak • 25%
Other natural origin • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Wuhan Market Animal Origin • 25%
Laboratory Leak • 25%
Other Natural Origin • 25%
Still Undetermined • 25%
Widely accepted • 25%
Partially accepted • 25%
Widely refuted • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Majority believe U.S. lab origin • 25%
Majority believe Chinese lab origin • 25%
Majority believe natural origin • 25%
Majority remain undecided • 25%
Strongly Agree • 25%
Somewhat Agree • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Disagree • 25%
Support natural spillover theory • 25%
Support lab leak theory • 25%
Call for further investigation • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%
Supports Wuhan Market Theory • 25%
Supports Laboratory Leak Theory • 25%
Supports Other Animal Market Theory • 25%
Remains Uncertain • 25%
Supports animal origin theory • 25%
Supports lab leak theory • 25%
Supports new theory • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%