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What will be the majority sentiment among Lebanese returnees regarding the ceasefire by January 26, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Positive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Negative • 25%
Mixed • 25%
Surveys or reports from credible organizations like the Lebanese government or international NGOs
Story
Displaced Lebanese Return Amid 60-Day Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Despite IDF Warnings
Nov 27, 2024, 09:15 AM
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday, initiating an initial 60-day halt to hostilities in one of the deadliest conflicts in years. Thousands of displaced residents began returning to their homes in southern Lebanon, including cities like Sidon, Tyre, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. Despite warnings from the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) advising them to delay their return, streams of cars filled the roads heading south as people celebrated the cessation of hostilities, with some hailing the deal as a 'victory' for the resistance. The ceasefire, brokered by the United States and France, follows over a year of sporadic clashes that intensified in recent months, displacing over a million people.
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Similar markets
Ceasefire reached • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations collapsed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Supports ceasefire, takes action against Hezbollah • 25%
Supports ceasefire, no action against Hezbollah • 25%
Opposes ceasefire, supports Hezbollah • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Support the ceasefire • 25%
Oppose the ceasefire • 25%
Seek amendments • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Agreement not reached • 25%
Improved political stability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Worsened political stability • 25%
Political crisis or government change • 25%
Broad international support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Broad international criticism • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Broad support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Predominant opposition • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Fully accepts the proposal • 25%
Accepts with amendments • 25%
Rejects the proposal • 25%
Seeks further negotiation • 25%
Ceasefire holds completely • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
Ceasefire officially ends • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire partially implemented • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire broken before completion • 25%
