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What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire after 60 days?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Hostilities resume • 25%
Permanent peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Israel, Hezbollah, or international mediators
Story
Displaced Lebanese Return Amid 60-Day Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Despite IDF Warnings
Nov 27, 2024, 09:15 AM
A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect at 4 a.m. local time on Wednesday, initiating an initial 60-day halt to hostilities in one of the deadliest conflicts in years. Thousands of displaced residents began returning to their homes in southern Lebanon, including cities like Sidon, Tyre, and the southern suburbs of Beirut. Despite warnings from the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) advising them to delay their return, streams of cars filled the roads heading south as people celebrated the cessation of hostilities, with some hailing the deal as a 'victory' for the resistance. The ceasefire, brokered by the United States and France, follows over a year of sporadic clashes that intensified in recent months, displacing over a million people.
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Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Return to conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire partially implemented • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire broken before completion • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire breakdown • 25%
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Ceasefire holds • 25%
Minor skirmishes occur • 25%
Major conflict resumes • 25%
Formal peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire approved and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire approved but not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire not approved • 25%
Ceasefire delayed beyond 2024 • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
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No official response • 25%
Ceasefire discussions ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire holds and leads to negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire holds but no significant progress in negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down, hostilities resume • 25%
Other • 25%