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Market
Will the U.S. and China enter formal trade negotiations by September 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. Trade Representative or Chinese government
Story
Trump Taps "Tariff Hawk" Lighthizer as U.S. Trade Representative, Signaling Renewed Trade War with China
Nov 8, 2024, 05:29 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has asked Robert Lighthizer to return as the U.S. Trade Representative, signaling a potential revival of aggressive trade policies from his previous administration. Lighthizer, known as a "Tariff Hawk," served as Trade Representative from 2017 to 2021 and played a key role in launching the trade war with China. Prior to his government service, he spent three decades at Wall Street law firm Skadden Arps, where he fought Chinese imports on behalf of the U.S. steel industry, including U.S. Steel. Although Lighthizer had expressed interest in serving as Treasury Secretary, he has been tapped to oversee U.S. trade policy once again. Lighthizer's return suggests a continuation of tariff-focused trade policies aimed at protecting American industries, indicating Trump's intention to resume the trade war with China.
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Yes, with major concessions from the U.S. • 25%
Yes, with major concessions from China • 25%
Yes, with equal concessions from both sides • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New tariffs agreed • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
New trade deal reached • 25%
Trade negotiations stall • 25%
Trade war escalates • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%