Loading...
Market
What will be the key international response to HTS's capture of Aleppo by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased sanctions on HTS • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Statements and actions by international governments and organizations
Story
HTS Leader al-Jolani, Once al-Qaeda, Leads Aleppo Offensive
Dec 4, 2024, 01:29 PM
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly al-Qaeda's chapter in Syria with a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head, has made a public appearance at the Aleppo Citadel, signaling a significant shift in the Syrian conflict. Al-Jolani was seen visiting the city center and the Citadel of Aleppo after his group captured the city. This development comes shortly after unfounded rumors circulated that al-Jolani had been killed in an airstrike in Idlib. His presence in Aleppo, leading the offensive against Assad's forces, marks a notable escalation in the ongoing Syrian civil war.
View original story
Similar markets
US intervention • 25%
Russian intervention • 25%
UN mediation • 25%
No significant international involvement • 25%
Recognition by major powers • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
Sanctions or military action • 25%
Other diplomatic response • 25%
Full support • 25%
Conditional support • 25%
No support • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Syrian army regains all lost territory • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No significant response • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Syrian regime regains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
No major response • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
SAA regains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Condemnation • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
No official response • 25%
Other actions • 25%
HTS gains significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Syrian Army regains control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
