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What will be the international response to the HTS-SDF situation in Aleppo by May 2025?
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HTS•Administration of Military Operations•SDF•Kurdish•Sheikh Maqsoud•Aleppo•Syria•Syrian regime•Iranian•Kurds•Syrian
Resolution / Starting Odds
US intervention • 25%
Russian intervention • 25%
UN mediation • 25%
No significant international involvement • 25%
Statements from international organizations or credible news reports
Story
HTS Offers US-Backed SDF Safe Passage to Evacuate Kurdish Neighborhoods in Aleppo
Dec 1, 2024, 03:59 PM
Syrian rebel groups, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its Administration of Military Operations, have issued an ultimatum to the US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to evacuate the Kurdish-majority neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsoud and Al-Ashrafiyah in Aleppo. HTS has promised safe passage for the SDF to move to northeastern Syria with their weapons intact, while also ensuring the protection of the Kurdish population in Aleppo. The rebels have emphasized that their fight is against the Syrian regime and Iranian proxy militias, not the SDF, and have committed to treating Kurds as an integral part of Syrian society.
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Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Increased sanctions on HTS • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Other diplomatic response • 25%
Recognition by major powers • 25%
Continued isolation • 25%
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Diplomatic engagement • 25%
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No official response • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
No major response • 25%
Peace talks initiated • 25%
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HTS loses control • 25%
HTS solidifies control • 25%
Prolonged stalemate • 25%
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EU diplomatic intervention • 25%
US military intervention • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
New refugee crisis in neighboring countries • 25%
No significant change in international response • 25%
Significant increase in humanitarian aid • 25%
Limited international intervention • 25%
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Sanctions on Ukraine • 25%
Support from NATO • 25%