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Will Abu Mohammed al-Jolani remain alive and active by June 30, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies and Syrian conflict monitoring groups
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HTS Leader al-Jolani, Once al-Qaeda, Leads Aleppo Offensive
Dec 4, 2024, 01:29 PM
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly al-Qaeda's chapter in Syria with a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head, has made a public appearance at the Aleppo Citadel, signaling a significant shift in the Syrian conflict. Al-Jolani was seen visiting the city center and the Citadel of Aleppo after his group captured the city. This development comes shortly after unfounded rumors circulated that al-Jolani had been killed in an airstrike in Idlib. His presence in Aleppo, leading the offensive against Assad's forces, marks a notable escalation in the ongoing Syrian civil war.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Bashar al-Assad remains in power • 25%
New leader from Assad's party • 25%
Opposition leader takes power • 25%
Interim government • 25%
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Other • 25%
Alive and active • 25%
Injured but alive • 25%
Killed • 25%
Captured • 25%
Alive but inactive • 25%
Injured • 25%
Deceased • 25%