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What will be the impact of U.S. facilitated peace negotiations on Ukraine's territorial integrity by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Territory regained • 25%
Territory lost • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Official Ukrainian government statements or credible news reports
Story
Trump May Pursue Back-Channel Diplomacy to End Ukraine War, Financial Times Reports, Risking Security Guarantees
Dec 28, 2024, 06:14 PM
The Financial Times reports that Donald Trump, as the incoming U.S. president, may pursue back-channel diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that Trump's business-oriented approach and desire to avoid military conflicts could lead to the U.S. facilitating significant agreements with Russia. However, this strategy raises concerns about Ukraine potentially being pressured into peace negotiations without adequate security guarantees. Experts warn that such a move could compromise Ukraine's sovereignty and security, particularly in light of ongoing aggressive actions from Russia.
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No significant change • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire without agreement • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Ongoing talks • 25%
No negotiations • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Conflict ongoing • 25%
Full peace agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full peace agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement, no territorial changes • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Escalation in conflict • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%