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Will the U.S. offer security guarantees to Ukraine in peace talks by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official U.S. government statements or credible news reports
Story
Trump May Pursue Back-Channel Diplomacy to End Ukraine War, Financial Times Reports, Risking Security Guarantees
Dec 28, 2024, 06:14 PM
The Financial Times reports that Donald Trump, as the incoming U.S. president, may pursue back-channel diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. Analysts suggest that Trump's business-oriented approach and desire to avoid military conflicts could lead to the U.S. facilitating significant agreements with Russia. However, this strategy raises concerns about Ukraine potentially being pressured into peace negotiations without adequate security guarantees. Experts warn that such a move could compromise Ukraine's sovereignty and security, particularly in light of ongoing aggressive actions from Russia.
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Other outcome • 25%
No security guarantees provided • 25%
Partial security guarantees provided • 25%
Full security guarantees provided • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
U.S. only • 25%
None • 25%
NATO • 25%
EU only • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Economic aid • 25%
Military support • 25%
Diplomatic assurances • 25%
No guarantees • 25%
