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What will be the outcome of the next Russia-Ukraine negotiation by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Escalation in conflict • 25%
Official announcements from Russian and Ukrainian governments
Story
Russian New Year's Drone Attacks Kill Two in Kyiv; Ukraine Downs 63 Drones
Jan 1, 2025, 07:35 AM
Russia launched a series of missile and drone attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on December 31, 2024, and January 1, 2025, causing casualties and damage to residential buildings. Explosions were reported in Kyiv, with drone debris falling in the Pecherskyi district, where a residential building was partially destroyed, resulting in at least two deaths, including a pregnant woman, and several injuries, including two other pregnant women. Ukrainian air defense forces intercepted 63 of the 111 Shahed drones launched by Russia during the attacks. Ukrainian authorities reported that over 1,300 drones and 250 missiles had targeted Kyiv in 2024, leading to more than 500 air raid alerts in the capital during the year.
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Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Negotiations postponed • 25%
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Other • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
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Escalation of conflict • 25%
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Successful peace agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Territorial Concessions • 25%
Prisoner Exchange • 25%
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Full peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions on Russia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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Other • 25%
De-escalation agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
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New sanctions imposed • 25%
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