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Market
What will be the impact of Ukraine's Kursk offensive on the overall conflict by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant escalation • 25%
Minor escalation • 25%
No change • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Official announcements from the Ukrainian or Russian governments; major news outlets such as BBC, Reuters, or Associated Press
Story
Ukraine's Kursk Offensive Disrupts Qatar Ceasefire Talks on Energy Strikes with Russia
Aug 17, 2024, 12:03 PM
Ukraine and Russia were reportedly on the verge of sending delegations to Doha, Qatar, to negotiate a partial ceasefire agreement aimed at halting strikes on each other's energy and power infrastructure. This potential agreement was seen as a significant step towards reducing hostilities. However, the negotiations were disrupted following Ukraine's surprise cross-border offensive in the Russian region of Kursk. While Russia did not entirely cancel the talks, they requested more time, leading to a postponement of the discussions. The talks were being facilitated by Qatar and were considered a landmark effort to ease tensions between the two nations.
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Ukraine gains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ukraine captures and holds territory • 25%
Russia repels the offensive • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Accelerate Ukrainian victory • 25%
Prolong the conflict • 25%
Lead to peace negotiations • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Buffer zone established • 25%
Operation fails • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Minor territorial gains • 25%
No territorial gains • 25%
Territorial losses • 25%
Ukraine maintains control • 25%
Russia retakes all lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Mutual withdrawal under a ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ukraine captures significant territory • 25%
Russia retains control of most areas • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine maintains control over parts of Kursk • 25%
Russia regains full control • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing conflict • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine retains control of captured territories • 25%
Russia reclaims all territories • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant Ukrainian gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant Russian gains • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Complete Ukrainian control • 25%
Partial Ukrainian control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Complete Russian control • 25%
Ukraine captures significant territory • 25%
Russia repels all attacks • 25%
Stalemate with minor territorial changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Significant territorial gain by Ukraine • 25%
Minor territorial gain by Ukraine • 25%
No territorial gain by Ukraine • 25%
Territorial loss by Ukraine • 25%