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What will be the outcome of the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ukraine retains control of captured territories • 25%
Russia reclaims all territories • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Verified reports from major news agencies such as Reuters, BBC, or official statements from the Ukrainian or Russian governments.
Story
Ukraine's Kursk Offensive: State of Emergency Declared, 3,000 Evacuated
Aug 9, 2024, 02:00 AM
Ukrainian forces have launched a significant cross-border offensive into Russia's Kursk region, marking the largest such incursion since the start of the war. The operation, which began on August 6, involves thousands of Ukrainian troops and has resulted in the capture of approximately 350 square kilometers of Russian territory. The offensive has prompted Russia to declare a state of emergency in the region and call in military reserves. Russian media reports indicate that the Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 25 kilometers into Russian territory, capturing the city of Sudzha and causing the evacuation of around 3,000 residents. The incursion has led to intense battles between Russian and Ukrainian troops, with reports of destroyed Russian military convoys and infrastructure. Ukrainian officials claim the operation aims to disrupt Russian military operations and draw forces away from the eastern front in Ukraine. Additionally, Ukrainian forces have reportedly taken hundreds of prisoners.
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Ukraine captures and holds territory • 25%
Russia repels Ukrainian offensive • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine captures significant territory • 25%
Russia repels all attacks • 25%
Stalemate with minor territorial changes • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Ukraine gains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ukrainian forces withdraw successfully • 25%
Ukrainian forces face significant losses • 25%
Russian logistics significantly disrupted • 25%
Stalemate with no significant outcome • 25%
Ukrainian forces take additional territory • 25%
Ukrainian forces hold current territory • 25%
Russian forces reclaim some territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ukraine captures significant territory • 25%
Russia retains control of most areas • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukrainian forces hold captured territory • 25%
Russian forces recapture all territory • 25%
Stalemate with contested areas • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukraine controls Kursk • 25%
Russia retains control of Kursk • 25%
Stalemate with no clear control • 25%
Ceasefire in Kursk region • 25%
Ukraine captures and holds territory • 25%
Russia repels the offensive • 25%
Stalemate with ongoing skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Ukraine retains control • 25%
Russia regains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Ukrainian forces gain significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant gains • 25%
Russian forces repel Ukrainian offensive • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Complete Ukrainian control • 25%
Partial Ukrainian control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Complete Russian control • 25%